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"More than half the league is within five wins of their pro-rated projected record, which is the range inside which variance can explain most differences. In addition to the Cubs, the Yankees and Rockies are exactly where they’re supposed to be. Some teams that feel like disappointments, like the Astros, Phillies, and Guardians, are within three games of my projection, basically a rounding error. Anchoring the evaluation of a team’s performance to a hard number helps to put performance in perspective."