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Even at that, the internal variance of team performance is always a factor. A team projected to play .550 ball doesn’t go exactly 11-9 every 20 games. I keep hammering this point because it’s critical to not overreacting to every four-game winning or losing streak: Whatever you think the in-season variance of a team’s performance is, it’s higher than that. The Angels started the season 9-5, then went 9-18. The Braves followed up 5-13 with 14-8. Last year, the 121-loss White Sox had a stretch in which they won eight of 12. Back in 2023, the A’s were 12-50 when they ripped off a seven-game winning streak that included a sweep in Milwaukee over the playoff-bound Brewers.
