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At the start of the playoffs, I had the Mariners winning the AL pennant. One of the hardest things about covering the postseason is not overweighting the thing you just saw. The Blue Jays erased a team that was of 100-win quality by underlying metrics, while the Mariners struggled to put away one that squeaked into the playoffs and was the worst of the eight left in the tournament. That’s additional information; it’s just important to remember all the information that was already there. I think the Mariners will be able to hold down the Jays with their right-handed pitching -- or maybe just the absence of lefties -- and revert to their in-season home-run rate against the Jays’ staff. At least one of these games will turn on the Jays’ pen, which is its weakest unit. Mariners in five.
