This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.
You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95
using your PayPal account or major credit card. This is the best time
to become a Newsletter subscriber -- playoff coverage has been where it
shines for 15 years!
--
Regarding manager walks to load the bases...I'm with you that when there are two outs you're comparing batting averages to on-base percentages. The calculation is different with one out, like it was in the 15th last night. Julio Rodriguez didn't need a hit to score a run, he pretty much just needed good contact. Jorge Polanco didn't need to get on base, he needed contact without a double play.
-- Donald W.
I found nine intentional walks that fit the description: second and third, one out, tied game, seventh inning or later. The Win Probability Added was -0.01 in seven cases, 0.00 in the other two. In the abstract, it’s a neutral decision, ever so slightly negative.
Whether you’re getting the platoon advantage or not, and the gap between the hitter you’re walking and the one you’re facing, are huge factors in the decision, so take the general with a grain of salt. I am certain, though, that the value to a pitcher in pitching with a base open versus not, independent of the AVG/OBP issue, is significant and pushes the decision over.
Yes, if you’re facing a team managed by Mike Shildt and he’s taken Albert Pujols out of the game and your choice is facing Matt Carpenter or a pitcher, put up four fingers. For most reasonable situations, you’re better off giving your pitcher flexibility and taking “the pitcher has to throw strikes” away from the hitter.
--J.
-- Donald W.
I found nine intentional walks that fit the description: second and third, one out, tied game, seventh inning or later. The Win Probability Added was -0.01 in seven cases, 0.00 in the other two. In the abstract, it’s a neutral decision, ever so slightly negative.
Whether you’re getting the platoon advantage or not, and the gap between the hitter you’re walking and the one you’re facing, are huge factors in the decision, so take the general with a grain of salt. I am certain, though, that the value to a pitcher in pitching with a base open versus not, independent of the AVG/OBP issue, is significant and pushes the decision over.
Yes, if you’re facing a team managed by Mike Shildt and he’s taken Albert Pujols out of the game and your choice is facing Matt Carpenter or a pitcher, put up four fingers. For most reasonable situations, you’re better off giving your pitcher flexibility and taking “the pitcher has to throw strikes” away from the hitter.
--J.
