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When you look at the deals that have been made, what’s clear is that since 2016, teams focus on years as much as wins. Players who come with more than two months of control have fetched far higher prices, from Juan Soto (James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and more), Chris Archer (Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz, and Austin Meadows), and even last year’s pair of reliever deals. Teams are willing to trade top prospects; they’re just not willing to do it for rentals. You see the names above, and we can add Leo De Vries and Eduardo Tait and Noelvi Marte and Simeon Woods Richardson and Agustin Ramirez, all top-100 prospects, some top-50 and higher. No one’s traded a De Vries or a Marte for a rental in a decade.
Conversely, the highest-rated prospects traded for rentals are an unimpressive group. Robby Snelling was a top-40 guy at the start of 2024 who was in the process of pitching his way off the lists when AJ Preller traded him for Tanner Scott. Calhoun, James Tibbs III, Thayron Liranzo, and Tekoah Roby were all rated in the lower reaches of some lists in the year they were dealt or just after that. The Nationals got more top-50 guys for Soto than have been traded for rentals at the last eight deadlines in total (2020 never counts).
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You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95
using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)
