This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.
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"Thinking Inside the Box" is an occasional Newsletter feature that pulls topics from a reading of the box scores. The lines in fixed-width are the player's box score line for his game.
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In what has been the strangest September I can recall, each day I think things will stabilize, and each night things get a little crazier. Did it all peak Wednesday? I don’t know, but it was a massive night of ball.
Guardians 5, Tigers 1
AB R H BI
Valera DH 4 1 1 2 HR
George Valera signed with the Guardians before they were the Guardians, all the way back in 2017. He appeared on every Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects list from 2020 through 2023, peaking at #33 heading into the 2022 season. Injuries stalled his progress, and the Guardians actually let him go last November, only to re-sign him a couple of days later. He missed the first couple of months of 2025 returning from surgery to repair a torn right patellar tendon, returned to hit .255/.346/.457, and was called up, more than eight years after being signed, on September 1.
Last night, he hit a two-run homer off Jack Flaherty to give the Guards a 2-1 lead in the third, a lead they would never relinquish. We’ve seen the Guardians go through a number of these hitting prospects in recent years, from Oscar Gonzalez to Jhonkensy Noel to Valera, and none have really stuck. For a team with the third-worst offense in baseball, though, Valera’s .242/.359/.455 line has been a godsend.
The game felt over once Valera rounded the bases, and it was. Once again, the Tigers’ bullpen allowed runs, two in 3 2/3 innings, and once again the Guardians’ pen did not, throwing three shutout frames to cap the win. The Guardians moved into first place by themselves, having made up 12 games on the Tigers in three weeks by going 17-2. The Tigers have lost eight in a row and 11 of 12, scoring three runs or fewer in nine of their last 12.
This race isn’t over. The Tigers, with a win tonight against rookie Parker Messick, can tie the Guardians with three games to play, though they lose the tiebreaker. (Holy hell, am I sick of the word “tiebreaker.”) They also remain a game ahead of the Astros, with the tiebreaker over them, and they’ll spend the weekend in Boston with a chance to beat the Red Sox for a playoff berth.
Right now, though, the Guardians are the best story in a sport with a lot of wonderful stories. They are set to complete a comeback from 15 1/2 games out of first place, the largest in history by any team, and go into the playoffs with a chance to shut down any opponent in a short series.
Pirates 4, Reds 3 (11 inn.)
IP H R ER BB K
Skenes 6.0 4 0 0 0 7
In what was his final start of the season, one in advance of six months’ rest, Paul Skenes went just 85 pitches and left with the line above, dominating the Reds. Pulling him in this context, in a meaningful game for many teams, with Skenes having a chance to cap his year with a shutout, is the kind of pitcher management rooted in ignorance and fear that I have railed against this year. The idea that you’re making a meaningful difference in Skenes’s future health by sparing him an additional 25, maybe 30 pitches in his final outing of the season, working on seven days’ rest, is just nonsense. It’s “number go down.” It’s woo. At least send him out for the seventh and see if he can get a quick inning.
Skenes finishes his first full season with a lock on the NL Cy Young Award. He leads the league in ERA, FIP, and strikeouts, and despite the careful handling -- just eight starts of at least 100 pitches, just one since June 19 -- he threw 187 1/3 innings, a mark that should land in the top five. Last night, it wasn’t just how effective he was, but how easy he made it look. Skenes never seems like he’s maxing out on the mound, just casually sitting 98 mph, throwing six pitches, getting 18 whiffs on 47 swings, allowing just one runner as far as third base. He looked like the best pitcher in the NL.
Don Kelly’s decision to lift Skenes was such a gift to the Reds it should be tax deductible. The Reds proceeded to come back against the Pirates’ bullpen, scoring two runs to tie the game and another in the tenth before falling short in the 11th. The Reds’ loss, their second in a row and sixth straight to teams completely out of contention dating to August 20, kept them a game behind the Mets in the NL wild-card race with four games to play. They’re playing the Pirates as you read this.
Phillies 11, Marlins 1
HR: Schwarber 2 (56), Sosa 3 (10), Bohm (11), Stott (13), Kemp (8)
On a night when the biggest homer hitters in the game went off, Kyle Schwarber kept pace with a pair of bombs -- one that just landed outside of Souderton a couple of minutes ago -- that ran his total to 56. At 32, he’s having a career year, on top of last year’s career year. I said on Bluesky that I wanted no part of his free agency, and I stand by that, but there is at least some chance he’s Nelson Cruz and has another 150-200 homers left in his bat. I don’t think that’s the case because of all the swing-and-miss in his game. Some team is going to bet $100 million on the idea, though.
Edmundo Sosa was the big story of this blowout, with the first three-homer game of his career in his first game back from a right groin strain. This is Sosa’s second two-win season as the Phillies’ backup infielder, playing about half the time. He’s been one of the most valuable reserves this decade. Defining a bench player as one with at least 300 games played, fewer than 1500 plate appearances, and at least ten games at three positions since 2021, Sosa leads the group with 9.8 bWAR, ahead of Ernie Clement, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Jose Caballero.
Yankees 8, White Sox 1
AB R H BI
Judge RF 4 2 3 4 2 HR
Our tour of two-homer nights by the best power hitters of the era takes us to the Bronx, where Aaron Judge became the fourth player to hit 50 homers in at least four seasons, joining Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa. Judge has been the best player in baseball by any WAR calculation, and he’s done so for a Yankees team that would not be in the playoff picture but for his efforts. He’s hit .305/.425/.647 with an average of 49 homers and eight WAR since 2021, the kind of peak that marks him as a lock for the Hall of Fame no matter what happens next.
Judge’s two homers last night lifted the Yankees into a tie for first place in the AL East, continuing a September in which he’s hit .358/.526/.731 and leads MLB with a 234 wRC+. The Yankees were as far back as 6 1/2 games in August, and five games out just ten days ago. Now they’ve won seven of eight as the Blue Jays have slipped. The Jays still hold the tiebreaker, but not only are the Yankees possibly going to win the division, they may end up as the AL’s overall #1 seed. They finish up with the White Sox today, then host the Orioles over the weekend.
Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 1
IP H R ER BB K
Crochet (W, 18-5) 8.0 3 0 0 0 6
Garrett Crochet, who threw 85 innings in his first four years as a professional, will lead the American League in innings pitched this year and may lead the majors pending one more Logan Webb start. He’ll land just a beat behind Tarik Skubal for the AL Cy Young Award -- no shame in that -- and may very well face off against Skubal in the Wild Card Round next week. His eight flawless innings last night nearly sealed a playoff berth for the Red Sox, who have faded a number of injuries and giving away their best hitter to possibly get back to the postseason for the first time since 2021.
Crochet needed just 100 pitches to complete eight innings, pounding the strike zone with his fastball and cutter (34/50 for strikes). His velocity was up, even as he made his third start in 11 days and hit 200 innings for the first time. Craig Breslow mostly cashed in the work of other people to get Crochet from the White Sox. In a year when many of his moves have come with big question marks, that trade stands out as not just a win, but the difference between playing next week and not.
The Sox aren’t out of the AL East race yet, three behind the Yankees and Jays with four to play. The Yankees catching the Jays creates a path for the Sox, who lose the tiebreaker to the Blue Jays but win it over the Yankees. If they can win tonight (Brayan Bello goes up against a bullpen game for the Jays), their chance of winning the division goes way up based on the team they might tie for first place.
The Blue Jays’ magic number was six eight days ago, and it’s four today. They have dropped six of seven games, scoring just 13 runs along the way, allowing 44. Nothing is working, but it’s the offense that’s the bigger culprit. The contact is still there -- a 17% strikeout rate over the seven games -- but it’s useless contact: a .156 average with a .243 SLG. The Jays have three homers and a total of 12 extra-base hits during this stretch. They have eight barrels, tied with the Orioles for lowest over the last eight days. They’ve also been unlucky, with the largest gap between their actual and expected outcomes at the plate by a large margin over the second-unluckiest team.
The Jays have locked up a playoff berth, but they could fall as low as the #5 seed, particularly if they lose tonight. They host the Rays in their final series.
Blue Jays 90-68 --
Yankees 90-68 --
Red Sox 87-71 3
Cubs 10, Mets 3
IP H R ER BB K
Tong (L, 2-3) 2.0 7 5 5 2 1
It’s possible I jumped the gun on the Mets’ trio of young starters. Nolan McLean has continued to be great, but Jonah Tong has two disaster starts in his last three, and Brandon Sproat didn’t reach the fifth inning his last time out. As I mentioned yesterday, the Mets’ offense is carrying the team right now. The Mets haven’t gotten a quality start in more than a week, and their 4.50 team ERA in September is 23rd in baseball.
Thanks to extra-innings losses by the Reds and Diamondbacks, the Mets cling to the third wild-card slot even after being blown out last night. McLean starts today against the Cubs before the Mets go to Miami to finish their season against a Marlins team that is still not eliminated from playoff contention.
With the Cubs’ win and the Padres’ loss, the Cubs lowered their magic number to lock up the #4 seed and home-field advantage next week to two.
Mariners 9, Rockies 2
AB R H BI
Raleigh C 5 2 3 4 2 HR, 2B
A catcher hit 60 home runs.
I don’t really know what to do with that. In an era when catchers aren’t selected for their offense, a catcher hit 60 home runs. Cal Raleigh’s 2025 season is one we will be talking about for a long time. He hit a pair of home runs to reach a figure that, meta conversations aside, holds a special place in baseball history.
Sixty.
Cal Raleigh came out of the gate hitting and just never really stopped. I mentioned Judge earlier; Raleigh’s September wRC+ is 208, fourth in the majors, though with his defensive value he is tied with Judge in fWAR for the month. No matter which side of the MVP argument you land on -- I’ll weigh in Monday -- both players have made the decision extremely difficult by finishing strong for teams that needed their performances to push into first place.
With their win, the Mariners clinched the AL West, and their magic number over the Guardians for a first-round bye is one. Three weeks ago, the Mariners looked like they might not play in the Wild Card Round. As it turns out, they won’t.
Dodgers 5, Diamondbacks 4 (11 inn.)
IP H R ER BB K
Sasaki 1.0 0 0 0 0 2
The game went off the rails a little after this, but last night, Roki Sasaki made his first MLB appearance since May and blew the doors off the Diamondbacks: 13 pitches, seven fastballs at 98-99, six splitters that he commanded with excellent movement. The Dodgers, who have very few relievers they can trust right now -- they blew another late lead in this one before winning in 11 -- might have stumbled into a solution by moving Sasaki and his incredible stuff to the pen. It was just one outing, and we still don’t know if Sasaki can throw strikes consistently. Just off this one appearance, though, it seems likely that Sasaki is going to have a leverage role in the playoff bullpen.
The Diamondbacks picked on the Dodgers’ pen, but Arizona couldn’t get over the top despite rallies in the eighth and tenth. Torey Lovullo’s odd decision to let Tommy Edman face a lefty in the 11th proved costly when Edman, a far better hitter from the right side, delivered the game-winning single. The Diamondbacks, who could have controlled their playoff destiny with a win, now sit a game behind the Mets with four to play.
The Dodgers’ win, combined with the Padres’ loss, reduces L.A.’s NL West magic number to one. As has been the case in most seasons since Guggenheim Partners took over the team, all the concern about the Dodgers during the summer ends up being about an NL West champion.
Giants 4, Cardinals 3
3B: Knizner (1)
Oh, that number is meaningful. Andrew Knizner’s eighth-inning triple, which knocked in the game-winning run, wasn’t just the first of his season, it was the first of his major-league career, and his first triple at any level since 2017 in A ball. Knizner got some help, with Victor Scott II attempting a do-or-die dive of Knizner’s sinking line drive, missing it and having the ball get past him all the way to the wall. Scott’s misplay was the decisive one in both this game and the Cardinals’ playoff hopes. They remain mathematically alive but need something like 16 results to fall just so to crack the bracket. I think the Colts are involved somehow.
The Giants and Cardinals eliminated each other over the last few weeks, playing five games in St. Louis and San Francisco, four of them one-run contests, three won by the Giants and two by the Cards. If either team went even 4-1, it would still have a shot; 5-0 would have left them in pretty decent shape. Instead, they’re both just trying to reach .500 this weekend, the Giants hosting the Rockies, the Cardinals visiting Wrigley Field.
The Giants, unless they sweep this weekend, will not have finished so much as at .500 since they fired Gabe Kapler.
Athletics 6, Astros 0
AB R H BI
Walker 1B 4 0 1 0 2B
The Astros have completely lost the plot, scoring one run in two games at Sutter Health Park. They have eight runs in their last five games, 23 in nearly eight full games since Yordan Alvarez hurt himself on September 15. Last night they had three singles, two doubles, and one walk in being shut out by Luis Severino and friends.
Christian Walker did have one of those doubles, but even so, his collapse has been a big part of the story. Signed to a three-year deal over the winter, part of the way the Astros were trying to replace Kyle Tucker in the aggregate, Walker just got old: .234/.295/.400 with his highest strikeout rate since 2018. Having failed once to fill first base through free agency, the Astros paid Walker and Jose Abreu a combined $40 million this year for -0.3 bWAR. Yes, on a value basis, Abreu was worth more to the Astros this year by not playing than Walker was in 151 games.
The Astros had a four-game lead in the AL West three weeks ago, and they were still in first place last week. They’ve lost 11 of 17, including five straight, and are now in a lose-off with the Tigers for the AL’s final playoff berth.
Red Sox 87-71 +2
Tigers 85-73 --
Astros 84-74 1
The Astros lose the tiebreaker to both the Red Sox and Tigers, teams they haven’t played since mid-August. The Astros play tonight in Sacramento and finish their season in Anaheim.
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Tigers fans, Astros fans, Blue Jays fans, Mets fans...there is a lot of frustration out there right now. Those teams all seemed like October locks for most of the season, and now they’re playing for their lives, or at least in the Blue Jays’ case, to stay out of next week’s fray. People have spent good money on tickets to playoff games that may never be played.
It has me thinking about the ’78 Red Sox, though not for the obvious reasons. Those Red Sox had a ten-game lead in the AL East in early July. They were 8 1/2 games up on the Brewers and Yankees as late as August 20, and they entered September with a seven-game cushion. By September 13, they were in second place, having lost ten of 13 games including being swept at Fenway by the Yankees in a four-game series that would be remembered as the “Boston Massacre.” A few days later, Thurman Munson walked off the Sox at Yankee Stadium to give the Bombers a 3 1/2-game lead with 15 days left in the season. The Sox had lost 14 of 17 and seemed as done as the Tigers and the Astros do today.
Boston beat the Yankees the next day, though, and lost just twice more. The story of 1978 has always been the Yankees and 14 1/2 games and Bucky F’ing Dent. As much as that, though, the story can be the Red Sox, who won 12 of their last 14 games, including the last eight on the schedule, and matched the Yankees win for win over the season’s final week until the Yankees finally lost, on the season’s last day, to create a tie atop the AL East. The Yankees held the head-to-head tiebreaker, which no one gave a crap about because ties were settled on the field, the way they always should be.
You know what happened next, of course. Lou Piniella made a catch, Bucky Dent hit a fly ball, Carl Yastrzemski popped up. All of that happened, though, because the Red Sox went from dead in the water to 14-2.
There is nothing saying that the teams that have been stacking Ls for weeks can’t do what those 1978 Red Sox did. No team is as good as it looks when it’s playing well, or as bad as it looks when playing poorly. Variance swamps everything.
