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Similarly, I had the Astros outscoring their opponents by 21 runs, which is exactly what they did, and I was very close on their runs scored (698 pred, 686 act) and allowed (677 pred, 665 act) as well. I was off by four games on their record. There were three other teams, the Rangers, Guardians, and Royals, for which I was within ten runs of their actual run differential, plus the Giants, who I was off on by 13 runs. That all sounds pretty good given that my baseline is projecting runs scored and allowed and then converting to wins. I tend to judge my performance more this way than by record...so being off by 100 runs or more on 11 teams, and 150 or more on six of them, is a total disaster. I simply did not read the ’25 season well.
