Friday, June 26, 2026

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, June 26, 2026 -- "Carlos Mendoza Fired"

 

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The Joe Sheehan Newsletter: Carlos Mendoza Fired
Vol. 18, No. 51
June 26, 2026

Friday morning, the Mets announced that Carlos Mendoza is no longer their manager. They didn’t use the word “fired,” which is just a fig leaf. Mendoza, in his third season at the helm, had overseen a decline from 89 to 83 to this year’s 68-win pace. The Mets are in last place, and while he’s not the primary reason for that, he’s not someone who was part of the solution, either.

I’ve been a Mendoza critic for a while, mostly owing to his incredibly slow hook with starters. As far back as the 2024 playoffs...


It was all the decisions around that one that got Mendoza in trouble. We’ve been talking about his slow hook all year. Perhaps letting Luis Severino start the sixth with a three-run lead, with Severino on five shutout innings with no walks and a low pitch count, wasn’t a mistake. Severino allowed a .272/.364/.479 line to batters facing him a third time this season, but the Phillies’ #9 man was starting the sixth, so go batter by batter. You have to have someone ready, though, and when Severino allows a two-out single to Trea Turner, it’s time to be aggressive. If Danny Young isn’t on the roster to face Bryce Harper with two outs, why is he on the roster? You’re up a set and a break on the Phillies with a chance to go home up 2-0 in the series. It’s not the time to sit back and watch, it’s the time to be aggressive.

Once Harper homers off Severino, you have to pull him. Mendoza, though, let Severino pitch to Nick Castellanos. Castellanos obliterated a sweeper to tie the game at three. 

The general third-time penalty (TTP) isn’t some esoteric bit of data yanked from a darkened cave two weeks ago, nor are Severino’s struggles when left in a game to face hitters a third time. You’re carrying 13 pitchers, there’s an off day tomorrow. If you take nothing else from this year’s postseason coverage, take this: There is no such thing as “cruising.” A pitcher’s performance to date in a game is in no way predictive of what his performance will be for the rest of the game. Luis Severino had no business pitching to Bryce Harper, and that’s the biggest managerial error of the playoffs to date. The series is now tied.

I would go back to the theme of Mendoza’s handling of his pitchers again and again during the Mets’ October run. 

In the summer of 2025, it came up again.


I’ve been complaining about Carlos Mendoza’s slow hook on Slack for more than a year now. Had Patrick Bailey not done what he did Tuesday night, Wednesday’s Newsletter may have been entirely about the topic. With Mendoza, though, you’re never far from the next chance to write about it.

Sean Manaea made his debut yesterday in relief of Clay Holmes, clearly a planned tandem start that was perhaps thrown off kilter by Holmes getting through five innings on just 81 pitches. Manaea tacked on three shutout frames, laboring a bit in the eighth before escaping unharmed. I was watching that eighth, and Manaea looked tired to me, It was his first outing back, a hot day in Kansas City, maybe the adrenaline was wearing off. Manaea couldn’t finish off Vinnie Pasquantino, who singled on the tenth pitch of his at-bat. Mendoza, though, left Manaea in to pitch to Maikel Garcia, who popped out on the first pitch. 

When the Mets tied the game off Carlos Estevez, though, Mendoza sent Manaea back to pitch the ninth. I understand that Manaea is a starter by trade, but nothing in his third inning of work indicated he was ready for a fourth. Manaea struck out Salvador Perez, then allowed singles to Tyler Tolbert and Nick Loftin, with a stolen base between them, for the walkoff run. 

Manaea had lost his velo by this point. He was 93-94 in his first inning of work and 91-92 at the start of the eighth. He reached back for a bit more when trying to finish the eighth, leaving it all on the mound in what he must have figured was his last inning. Sent back out for the ninth, he didn’t throw a single fastball at 92 mph or better. The Mets lost.

Mendoza has done this time and time again, and if anything, seems to be getting worse about it. It’s as if he’s single-handedly trying to change how starters are used, even if it costs the Mets runs, costs the Mets wins. If the Mets do make the playoffs, I am certain that they’ll eventually be eliminated when Mendoza leaves a tired starter in for too long.

The Mets, of course, never gave Mendoza that opportunity, closing the season 38-55, losing their final two games to a non-contending Marlins team and missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker.

This year, it was Mendoza’s lineup cards that gave me agita. From March 28:


All of this is run by a manager who, while seeming to be good at the interpersonal stuff, is bad in the dugout. One reason the Mets missed the playoffs a year ago was Carlos Mendoza’s very slow hook, which directly cost the team three wins. This year. Mendoza starts by burying his fourth-best hitter in the nine hole so Robert and Marcus Semien can make outs ahead of him. I wasn’t looking for more reasons to ding the Mets for keeping him -- they already took as large a projection hit as I’ll ever give a team for its manager -- but the Opening Day lineup bolstered my confidence that I pegged him well.

Finally, Mendoza made a clear tactical mistake that led to a loss on April 19.


[T]he Mets’ best chance of getting out of the inning was to intentionally walk Hoerner and try to strike out Busch. In the event Kimbrel walked Busch, that would bring up Alex Bregman. Bregman is also a good contact hitter, but not as good as Hoerner, and if he were batting, there would be a force available at every base, making some of his contact good for the Mets.

There won’t be two times a year I advocate for an intentional walk, but this is one of them. Mendoza needed to maximize the chance of a strikeout, and instead he minimized it. Hoerner flied out to right, PCA scored, and the Mets lost their 11th straight contest.

The sequence once again underlined Mendoza’s inability to make the right game-level choices. His lineups, his persistent slow hook, and his batter-to-batter decisions are all lacking. The Mets didn’t miss the playoffs last year, and they’re not 7-15 this year, just because Mendoza is a poor Xs and Os guy. But he isn’t helping. I thought the team would be better off letting him go after last season, and instead David Stearns jettisoned every longstanding player while retaining the manager. 

The timing of the today’s decision is odd. I thought Mendoza would be fired that same week in April that Alex Cora and Rob Thomson were, and he was not. Then it seemed David Stearns would ride out the season with Mendoza and do a full search for a long-term answer in the offseason. Stearns, who I don’t think is actually in danger of losing his job, would nevertheless reset the leadership and buy himself some time.

Firing Mendoza today is neither fish nor fowl. The Mets are probably too far buried, especially given their injury issues, to become relevant in any playoff race. They’re 15 games out in the NL East, 9 1/2 games removed from the last wild-card slot. They would have to play .580 ball from here on in just to get to .500, and that’s not going to be nearly enough. To get to 85 wins, they’re have to go 51-30, a .630 pace. There’s a version of this roster capable of doing that, with full health and performance. I’m not sure Mendoza nor Andy Green nor Casey McGraw Weaver can make it happen.

The Mets’ season isn’t over solely because of Carlos Mendoza. As Mike Petriello pointed out, this is a .500 team when Juan Soto plays, and a disaster when he doesn’t. Stearns’s terrible offseason has been a bigger factor than Mendoza’s poor decisions. Mendoza, though, was over his head. He’s a bad tactical manager, and the argument that he’s good at the interpersonal stuff becomes harder to make as the questions over the relationship between Soto and Francisco Lindor persist.

There will be pressure to follow Mendoza, a first-time manager, with one with more experience. Alex Cora’s name will come up a lot. (I’m low man on Cora, who is still living off 2018.) Other veteran managers under the age of 70 next summer include Bob Melvin, Joe Girardi, and Mike Shildt. Torey Lovullo’s contract is up at the end of the season, and while his strong relationship with GM Mike Hazen makes it likely he’d continue with the Diamondbacks, Steve Cohen can throw a lot of money at Lovullo to change that.

Since parting ways with Terry Collins after the 2017 season, the Mets have had four managers in 8 1/2 seasons. None has lasted longer than Mendoza’s 2 1/2. The team’s inability to settle on a dugout leader is one reason the Mets have been so disappointing over the last decade. Stearns got a lot of his personnel choices wrong last year; now he faces his biggest one. Stearns inherited Mendoza, and it is possible the next Mets manager will be the only one he gets to hire. (Ed. note: Stearns hired Mendoza. I got the order of events wrong. --JSS) He’ll have to get this choice right.


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Thursday, June 25, 2026

Joe Sheehan Newsletter, June 25, 2026 -- "Thinking Inside the Box"

 

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter this week only for one year for 20% off, just $63.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card. (Zelle users, please email me for details.)

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"Thinking Inside the Box" is an occasional Newsletter feature that pulls topics from a reading of the box scores. The lines in fixed-width are the player's box score line for his game.

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Editor Scott is on vacation, so for the next couple of weeks I’ll ask you to follow the advice in the Little River Band’s best song.


Marlins 4. Rangers 2

                 AB  R  H  BI
Lopez 2B          3  2  2   1 HR

I definitely wasn’t on Otto Lopez coming into this year. The most notable thing about him, to me, was that the Marlins had used him to get Xavier Edwards off shortstop in the middle of last season, flipping the two in the middle infield. Lopez isn’t a shortstop any more than Edwards is, but the alignment worked better as Edwards took well to second base. (This year, the two are around average at their new positions.)

Lopez came into this season off two years of a .257/.308/.372 (89 OPS+) line, with his best feature being a 15% strikeout rate. His batted-ball data indicated there was a bit more in there, with his expected wOBA running 26 points ahead of actual, and his expected slugging nearly 50 points ahead.

So maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a 27-year-old with that kind of profile take a big step forward. After yesterday’s strong day in a win, Lopez is hitting .340/.374/.483, leading the NL in batting average and base hits. Lopez is getting some of the good fortune denied him the last two seasons, with a .380 BABIP that’s fifth in MLB, helping him out-hit his expected average by 55 points, and run more than 30 points ahead of his expected wOBA. If you look at that last figure, you see that Lopez hasn’t broken out so much as improved just a bit each year.

You Otto Know (selected stats, 2024-26)

        wOBA   xwOBA
2026    .372    .339
2025    .295    .330
2024    .302    .317

(wOBA is a measure of batting output that maps roughly to the scale of OBP. xwOBA is that same figure as calculated using Statcast’s batted-ball metrics, and gets us a bit closer to a player’s true performance.)


Regardless of how he’s getting there, Lopez has been one of the best players in the NL, a key part of the best Marlins’ offense since 2017, when Giancarlo Stanton was still here. The Marlins are 42-39, with a 44-37 third-order record. They’re seven games back of a stumbling Braves squad in the NL East, just 1 1/2 games out of the last NL wild-card berth. (Nine teams are separated by four games for three spots, it’s a mess.) They also have some fairly clear holes they can try to fill in center field and at third base. The Marlins will be a fun watch for the rest of the year.


Cubs 10, Mets 3 (G1)

                 AB  R  H  BI
Swanson SS        4  2  2   7 2 HR

Cubs 10, Mets 5 (G2)

                 AB  R  H  BI
Swanson SS        5  1  3   4  3B

They are absolutely going to have to drag Dansby Swanson kicking and screaming out of New York. While he did have a three-game hitting streak when the Cubs landed in the city Sunday night, that came with just a .183/.292/.325 line and serious concerns that, at 32, he was another early-thirties hitter aging out of the league. 

In three games at Citi Field, all Cubs wins, Swanson is 7-for-12 with a double, a triple, and three home runs. He’s added 70 points to his OPS in three days, which isn’t something you’re supposed to be able to do this deep into the season. With his average-plus defense at shortstop, Swanson is now on pace for another four-win campaign.

Swanson has been remarkably consistent since signing with the Cubs in 2023, posting between a 96 and 104 OPS+ in every year, playing at least 147 games in every season, hitting 16 to 24 homers a year, accumulating 4.0 to 5.2 bWAR a year. He won’t hit like Babe Ruth’s big brother for much longer, but a league-average bat and 1300 good defensive innings at shortstop makes for a valuable player.

I’m just not sure he can be even that, though. Swanson’s batted-ball quality, even after these last few days, is awful. He’s not hitting the ball as hard as he did at 30 and 31, and as bad as his .305 wOBA is, it’s running ahead of his expected .294 mark. The Cubs don’t have much choice but to play a healthy Swanson, and they do have the luxury of batting him ninth. I just think the collapse risk that seemed to be being realized a week ago is still very much in play.

The Cubs sit seven games behind the Brewers in the NL Central, unable to gain ground as the Brew Crew kept squeaking by the anemic Reds. They hold the last wild-card spot in the NL, part of that scrum I mentioned above, but the news just keeps getting worse. Just in the last few days. Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown hit the IL, and the team announced that Justin Steele would not be re-joining the rotation in 2026. Cabrera and Brown join Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton on the IL; of the team’s projected rotation, only Shota Imanaga is currently healthy. 

The Cubs traded for the Mets’ David Peterson early today just to get through the coming weekend, and it’s hard to see how they get through the next three months with a starting rotation that already didn’t have much upside, and now has no depth.


Guardians 4, White Sox 3

                     IP  H  R ER BB  K
C. Smith (BS, 3)    0.2  3  2  2  1  1  2 HR

Cade Smith blew the save yesterday on the heels of blowing a ninth-inning lead Monday. The Guardians did rally to win this one, but it was an indication of how fragile all this is for the Guardians. Across the last few years under Stephen Vogt, their plan was to score just enough and get just enough from their starters to turn the game over to a lockdown pen. The locks are getting picked.

Lead Guardians No More (Guardians bullpen, 2024-26)

         ERA   Rk     FIP   Rk    fWAR   Rk
2026    3.88   14    3.82   11     2.6   11
2025    3.44    3    3.49    1     6.6    3
2024    2.57    1    3.30    1     7.8    1


Guardians relievers ate 12 losses, total, in 2024. They have racked up 14 already this year. The Guardians’ model for winning games with a bad offense required their bullpen to be perfect. That’s how they got into the 2024 and 2025 postseasons, and the lack of that elite pen may keep them out this time around.

Then again, maybe not. Heading into today, the American League is 44 games under .500 and being outscored in interleague play by a half a run a game. Just five AL teams are above .500 and just three have outscored their opponents. It’s possible, with the right mix of results, that at some point soon only the Yankees, among 15 AL teams, will have a positive run differential. In the Central, the Guardians are tied with the White Sox in first, 4 1/2 games ahead of the Twins (who have their own issues) and 7 1/2 ahead of the Tigers. The Guardians, in fact, are within percentage points of holding a first-round bye. There’s never been a better time to be a mediocre AL baseball team.

Remember: MLB wants to expand the playoffs.


Yankees 4, Tigers 2

                     IP  H  R ER BB  K
Skubal (L, 3-4)     6.0  4  4  4  0  9  3 HR

There’s a mixed bag here. In three starts since making a shockingly quick comeback from elbow surgery, Tarik Skubal has a 4.96 ERA and a 5.86 FIP. He’s allowed six homers on 16 hard-hit balls in those three starts, and is now posting his highest hard-hit rate since 2021, long before he became a Cy Young winner.

Parallel to that, though. Skubal has a 21/2 K/BB in 16 1/3 innings, and has steadily become more dominant. Last night, he posted 21 whiffs on 52 swings which, not to get too nerdy, statheads call “really freaking great.” His changeup, the pitch that got him the 2025 Cy Young Award, generated a 50% whiff rate. The ERA and FIP, I think, are hiding information; Skubal’s HR/FB rate in his three starts is 37.5%, which is the kind of number you might see in the Home Run Derby. Skubal is more or less back to being Tarik Skubal, just getting unlucky.

The catch is that the Tigers, who don’t have much margin for error, are 1-2 in Skubal’s last three starts. They’re right on the line as far as viability, 7 1/2 back in the Central, five back in the wild-card race behind a whole bunch of teams. I don’t think Scott Harris wants to trade Skubal, not least because the returns for even the very best trade-deadline rentals are meager. The Tigers are 12 games under .500, but their third-order mark would have them leading the division. It is simply too soon to say with any confidence with which team Skubal will finish the season.


Brewers 6, Reds 5

                 AB  R  H  BI
McLain 2B         2  0  0   0

  

Back on April 28, I included the Reds in a “Fraud Watch” piece. They were 18-10 when it was sent, and they are 19-32 since. (The other team in the piece, the Padres, are 19-9/22-28 in the same period. Trust the numbers.)

After being swept by the Brewers in a series in which they scored five runs while playing actual baseball and fell to 37-42, it may be time for the Reds to take a long hard look at themselves. They’re 29th in wRC+ this year, after ranking 24th and 26th the last two years. Matt McLain’s short, quiet night is just the example I picked to illustrate the problem, which is that the Reds squandered a promising class of hitters that came up in 2023. McLain, who lost 2024 to a shoulder injury, has hit .213/.301/.345 since then. Let’s just run a chart.

Bleeding Reds (2023 OPS+, with age that year, and everything after)

                         2023   24-26
                  Age    OPS+    OPS+
Will Benson        25    128      81
Matt McLain        23    127      76
Noelvi Marte       21    118      79
Spencer Steer      25    117      97
TJ Freidl          27    117      90
C. E’cion-Strand   23    112      52
Elly De La Cruz    21     87     117     


The one hitter who hasn’t gone backwards is the true superstar, Elly De La Cruz. Everyone else has regressed, with Christian Encarnacion-Strand not even having played in the majors this year, TJ Friedl and Noelvi Marte both having spent time with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate this spring, and Will Benson headed down there this week. It’s a near-total loss of a generation of hitters, and it makes you wonder what the future holds for Sal Stewart, running a 115 OPS+ as a 22-year-old rookie. Will the Reds break him, too?

Hunter Greene will be back soon, and that provides some hope, but unless he’s going to be a two-way player again, he just makes the team even more imbalanced. The Reds are in last place in the Central and about as close to a playoff spot as they are to the Rockies for the worst record in baseball.  By third-order record, they’re the second-worst team in the game ahead of those Rockies. They’ve ejected from the race, and it may be time to eject the people, Nick Krall and Brad Meador, who led them to this place.


Padres 5, Braves 2

                     IP  H  R ER BB  K
M. Perez (L, 6-2)   4.0  4  3  3  4  4 HR

Earlier this week, Lifetime subscribers got a bonus piece, and I’m just going to lift from it here.

The pitching is also a problem. Bryce Elder seems to be returning to earth, with 22 hits and 14 runs allowed over his last two starts. Spencer Strider is out until September, if he returns at all. Grant Holmes and Martin Perez are now running 1-2 ahead of Elder in the Getting Away With It Games. The Braves’ starting rotation is bottom ten in June. 

This is all to say that I see massive collapse risk here. The Braves have bounced back this year because their core hitters have, as a group, been a lot better, Austin Riley excepted. Looking forward, though, there are a lot of nights when this team will have a four-man lineup backing a starter you can’t count on for a quality start. The Phillies have climbed from 10 1/2 back to 6 1/2 back, and while the Braves have the best record in baseball, I don’t think that reflects the team on the field. The NL East is a race.

I wrote that Monday. Tuesday, I went on VSIN and gave out the Phillies to win the NL East at 4-1. The Braves’ lead, two days later and following a sweep at the hands of the Padres, is just 4 1/2 games.

A few weeks back I mentioned that the Mets were in almost the exact same spot as they’d been two years earlier, when they closed the year 60-36 and made the playoffs. The other side of that story is the Braves, who started that year 26-13 -- exactly the same as this year’s team -- before needing a win in Game 162 just to make the playoffs. That team was 44-35 through 79 games, this one is 48-31, but much of the same DNA is still in place -- a lack of depth foremost among them. I don’t think the Braves will hold on in the East, and I’m not at all sure they’ll even make the postseason.

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