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Nationals under 65.5 wins (DK). I have the Nats at 56-106, making this the biggest gap on the board and one I am very eager to give out. The Nationals are going to allow an absolute ton of runs, and there’s at least some chance they engage in a full tank by trading CJ Abrams and even James Wood along the way this year.
Rays over 77.5 wins (DK). One of the surprises, when I ran my numbers, is the way the Rays popped at 86-76. They outscored their opponents by 31 runs a year ago, so they started from a higher baseline than their 77-85 record would indicate. They shuffled deck chairs this winter; I’m seeing a lot of pitching depth, including in the bullpen, and enough of a power core to support it. I don’t have to completely buy into the projected record to see a big gap between that and the posted line.
Cubs over 88.5 wins (DK). The Cubs outscored their opponents by nearly a full run a game last year, and they return more or less the same talent, with some upgrades in the bullpen. I have them as the second-best team in baseball at 95-67, giving me a lot of cushion here.
Angels under 70.5 wins (DK). I am not at all seeing a 70-win roster in Anaheim, having them closer to 60 than 70 at 64-98. The offense might be average, and it supports below-average pitching and what I have as the worst defense in baseball.
Astros under 86.5 wins (DK). There’s a good argument for not picking two teams in the same division in the same direction because wins are finite and schedules are unbalanced. So take seriously my willingness to tack on the Astros as my last team-total pick. I have them as a .500 team, and if Josh Hader has to miss a lot of time -- injury optimism is not your friend, as Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski would say -- they could lose some extra games late thanks to a shaky pen around him.
